As the year begins in Jackson Hole’s real estate market, there are no surprises. The stunning scenery, abundant wildlife, and vast open spaces continue to attract buyers eager to establish roots in the area. Meanwhile, potential sellers grapple with the prospect of losing their advantageous low interest rates and finding suitable replacement properties.
Despite a 20% increase in overall inventory compared to the previous year, the number of properties for sale remains exceptionally low. This persistent low-inventory environment, coupled with strong demand, has kept real estate prices resilient. The overall average sale price rose by approximately 33% compared to the first quarter of 2023, partially driven by several properties fetching prices exceeding $20 million. However, the median sale price did decline by about 13%.
Conflicting motivations among buyers and sellers, combined with the ongoing scarcity of inventory, have resulted in transaction volume staying at historically low levels, down 5% from the previous year. With no significant influx of new inventory expected soon and interest rates showing no notable changes, the remainder of 2024 is anticipated to mirror the trends observed over the past two years: subdued transaction levels, limited inventory, and steadfast pricing.
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Single family homes have typically been a bright spot for the real estate market in Jackson Hole with the ultra-luxury properties leading the market in both demand and price growth. This year began with nearly 37% of home sales exceeding the $5 million mark including an estate on the Snake River selling at an astonishing $37 million. The strength of the luxury home market propelled the average sale price up roughly 18% and the median price climbed sharply, up 50%.
However, it’s crucial to note that the volume of home sales has plummeted to the lowest first-quarter level observed in a decade. Transaction volume has been on a downward trend since 2021, plummeting nearly 40% from the previous year and a staggering 70% from the first quarter of 2021. Given the scarcity of transactions, both average and median price statistics are subject to significant fluctuations.
As the first quarter ended, there was a modest uptick in inventory levels, rising by 16%, and the market had 16 homes under contract, merely two more than the same period last year. The duration required to sell a home has remained consistent with the previous year, averaging about 5 and a half months on the market. Amidst a mix of soaring luxury sales and fewer overall transactions, Jackson Hole’s single family home segment is moving forward through a time of unique challenges, but also opportunities.
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The surge in interest rates over the past year and a half has had the most significant impact on the sales of condominiums and townhomes in Jackson Hole. This trend has particularly affected first-time or entry-level buyers and investors, who are highly sensitive to affordability. Despite this, the year began with a slight uptick in transaction volume, with 6 more sales compared to the same period last year. Notably, 90% of the sales so far this year have been for entry-level, or investment-type properties priced under $2 million. It appears that this segment of buyers may have decided to proceed with their purchase plans, considering the interest rate environment is not showing any major changes anytime soon.
With sales predominantly concentrated in the lower-priced inventory, both average and median sale prices have seen a considerable decline compared to the first quarter of last year, dropping by 39% and 44%, respectively. As the spring selling season approaches, there is a promising increase in inventory, up by over 60% compared to the end of the first quarter last year. Looking ahead, buyers may find strategic opportunities that were previously unavailable in the past few years.
Land transactions in the first quarter of this year have been notably sparse, continuing the trend observed in both 2022 and 2023. The market for land sales reached a peak in 2021, with transactions in the first quarter of that year surpassing this year’s by 78%. This year, sales were primarily in the $3 million and above category, driving average and median prices up by 137% and nearly 150%, respectively. At first glance, this seems astonishing but is attributed to the fact that most land sales last year fell below the $2 million mark. Additionally, with so few transactions taking place, both average and median pricing metrics are highly volatile.
As of the end of March, there were 40 vacant land listings available, mirroring the inventory levels of the previous year. The average time required to sell a parcel of land saw a significant reduction, dropping about 35% to around 7 and a half months. Given the current trend of sparse transactions coupled with a consistent inventory level, motivated sellers will need to position themselves appropriately to capture interested buyers.
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The luxury real estate segment, defined as properties priced above $5 million, has maintained its strong energy into the new year, mirroring last year’s momentum. Despite a small number of transactions, the market for unique and luxurious properties in prime locations has witnessed consistent price growth. Notably, the median price saw a 20% increase, while the average sale price surged by over 40%, in comparison to the same timeframe last year. These increases were surely influenced by the sales of two notable ranches: the Grand View River Ranch, which was listed at $58 million, and the Lost Creek Ranch, listed at $40 million.
The inventory of luxury properties has remained steady compared to March of the previous year. With 8 high-value properties currently pending sale, the luxury market is poised to sustain its momentum throughout the remainder of the year.
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