In 2023, Jackson Hole’s real estate market sought a new normal, marking a period of transition and adaptation. The year kicked off with interest rates reaching 20-year highs, recession predictions, and concerns about international unrest looming heavily on the minds of both buyers and sellers. These factors collectively contributed to a deceleration in the real estate market, even in Jackson Hole. Nevertheless, the scenario is far from bleak. In fact, Jackson Hole has, and presumably aways will, remain a location where demand far outpaces supply.
Despite a 7% decrease in the number of transactions in the overall market, the average sale price witnessed a 10% increase. This surge in average price was influenced by a thriving luxury market, accounting for approximately 20% of the total transactions and around a dozen closings surpassing the $15 million mark. The median sale price saw a modest decline of about 9% from the previous year, indicating a shift towards more stable pricing. Inventory remains a persistent issue across most market segments, with a 5% drop in active listings compared to the end of 2022. The number of listings under contract at year-end remained essentially flat from a year ago. As Jackson Hole’s real estate market strives to find equilibrium after years of rapid expansion, the time required to sell a property has increased by over 25%. Each segment of the market has reacted to the changing market pressures differently but overall, strong demand persists when price, condition, and location align appropriately.
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The market in Jackson Hole maintains stability for single-family home sales, thanks to the ongoing interplay between supply and demand which has sustained competitiveness. 2023 saw a minor dip in transactions with about 6% fewer sales compared to 2022. Nonetheless, home prices remained resilient over the last year.
The average sale price jumped up 23%, a figure surely skewed by a strong showing from the luxury home market including a home sale listed for $48M. Perhaps a more appropriate measure of home pricing is the median home price which increased just slightly up 3%. The area south of Wilson experienced a larger than average number of sales, up 133% from last year. As long as inventory is stifled in this market segment, one can expect pricing won’t fluctuate significantly. The number of homes for sale at year-end dropped nearly 20% compared to a year ago with only 65 homes for sale. Meanwhile, pending sales are up nearly 10% indicating sustained demand for homes that are priced appropriately, especially those needing little or no renovations.
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Among all market segments, condominiums and townhomes have experienced the most significant impact from rising interest rates and subsequent concerns about affordability. The stats reveal convincing evidence that this segment of the market is reacting to these market forces.
Despite a healthy increase in available options for buyers, the number of transactions saw a nearly 10% decline compared to the previous year. Although there was a noteworthy 46% increase in active listings at year-end, the inventory remains historically low, with only 10 listings priced under $1 million. Due to this limited inventory, many sellers have stood firm on their prices. The average and median sale prices have shown little movement compared to the previous year. The market transition has set the stage for an ongoing negotiation between buyers and sellers, resulting in a lengthier selling process, almost 50% longer than the previous year. As this segment grapples with the dynamics of interest rates and affordability, finding a delicate equilibrium remains a key challenge and will determine the trajectory of this market segment in the coming year.
With over 97% of Teton County preserved from development in some form, there is a finite amount of undeveloped land, making vacant land in Jackson Hole increasingly scarce. Since land purchases have always been primarily cash transactions, the rising interest rate environment seen in the past year largely did not affect this segment of the market. The number of land sales held firm with a modest 3% increase over 2022. The booming years of the COVID-19 pandemic made building extraordinarily difficult due to labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. As those challenges have eased, individuals interested in building a home have more options for building professionals like architects and contractors, as well as availability of materials, however building costs per square feet remain very high.
Although the average and median sale prices recorded a decrease of 28% and 20%, respectively, this is not indicative of an overall decline in property values. Instead, the shift can be attributed to the price range in which the majority of sales occurred. In 2023 nearly 84% of the land sales occurred under the $3 million mark with only 9% exceeding $5 million. Conversely in 2022, only 63% of sales were below $3 million and 30% of the sales were over $5 million. Another sign of stability in this segment is the approximately 13% decrease in the inventory of listings for sale, coupled with a doubling of the number of parcels under contract at year-end.
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The luxury real estate market in Jackson Hole, defined for the purposes of this report as residential land and homes surpassing the $5 million threshold, performed especially well in 2023 when compared with other market segments. Despite the transaction count remaining flat year-over-year, around a dozen transactions breached the $15 million mark, showcasing the strength of this segment. Many of these properties encompass large acreage, river frontage, and expansive homes, features that command premium prices in the Jackson Hole area. A notable example is the sale of a 109-acre property with Snake River and Fish Creek frontage on the Westbank, listed at $48 million.
The substantial number of transactions at such high price points had a significant impact on the average and median sale prices for this category, surging by 38% and 31%, respectively, compared to the previous year. Approximately 20% of properties sold in 2023 fell within this luxury category, a notable increase from the 14% recorded in 2022. Although the inventory of luxury properties at year-end slightly decreased by 10% compared to the previous year, with 54 properties available, the demand for high-quality, uniquely located homes remains as strong as ever. A remarkable 175% surge in the number of luxury properties under contract at year-end underscores the enduring strength of the market for these exclusive properties.
