Jackson Hole’s real estate market continues to navigate challenges such as low inventory, higher interest rates, and record-breaking prices. Despite these obstacles, demand for Jackson Hole real estate remains robust, though different market segments have reacted inconsistently to these nuanced dynamics.
The number of transactions has steadily decreased for more than two years with a 7% drop from mid-year last year. Yet, persistently low inventory levels have kept prices stable since the 2021 peak. While the average sale price has remained flat, the median price has decreased by 7% compared to a year ago. This decline is largely due to a higher number of lower-priced properties sold in 2024, with sales of properties priced between $500,000 and $1 million increasing by over 40% compared to last year. Many of these properties include workforce-restricted housing and small, entry-level condos.
The spring and summer seasons did not bring the inventory respite many had hoped for, with overall inventory rising by a modest 7%, varying by segment. Demand remains high for appropriately priced, move-in-ready properties, as evidenced by a 16% increase in pending listings and a 16% drop in the average days on the market.
Looking ahead into 2024, we do not anticipate any major changes in Jackson Hole’s real estate market. While some price fluctuations are normal, Jackson Hole remains a highly sought-after destination. Without a significant increase in inventory, prices are likely to remain stable. If interest rates decrease, as some experts predict, competition among buyers for the limited available properties will likely intensify, consequently driving prices up again.
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The market for single-family homes through mid-2024 experienced another decline in the number of transactions, down about 12% from the same period last year. Like the overall market, single- family home transactions have decreased for over two years since their peak in 2021. The average and median sale prices also fell, down 15% and 14%, respectively. At first glance, these figures might suggest that Jackson’s home prices are dropping from their record-breaking peaks. However, a closer analysis reveals that the declines in average and median prices are due to a higher proportion of sales in the lower price ranges compared to a higher proportion of pricier sales in 2023. There is no clear evidence that prices have decreased since the market began to slow. The persistent lack of inventory and steady demand have kept prices stable. The nearly 15% increase in inventory at mid-year has not been sufficient to impact pricing.
Despite stable prices, sellers aiming to surpass the growth seen from 2020-2022 have faced challenges. Homes sold through mid-year sold on average 9.5% below their original listing price. As summer progresses, active sellers are adjusting, with current homes for sale reducing their prices by an average of nearly 11% since listing. Once a home reaches an appealing price point, buyers are ready to purchase, as evidenced by a 24% increase in pending listings compared to a year ago.
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The condo and townhome market through mid-2024 saw another decrease in the number of transactions, down about 16% from the same period last year. Similar to the overall market trend, condo and townhome transactions have been declining for over two years since peaking in 2021. The average and median sale prices dropped by 36% and 34%, respectively. Initially, these figures might indicate that Jackson’s condo and townhome prices are falling from their record highs. However, upon closer examination, it becomes clear that the declines in average and median prices are due to a higher proportion of sales in the lower price ranges in 2024 compared to a higher proportion of pricier sales in 2023. With the completion of the West Kelly Condominium Addition, a workforce-restricted development, many sales this year have included workforce-restricted housing and small, entry-level condos.
There is no conclusive evidence that prices have actually decreased since the market began to slow. The persistent lack of inventory and steady demand have kept prices intact. The 16% increase in inventory at mid-year has not been enough to affect pricing. Despite stable prices, sellers attempting to exceed the growth seen from 2020-2022 have faced challenges, leading to properties lingering on the market. As summer progresses, active sellers are adjusting, with current condos and townhomes for sale reducing their prices by an average of nearly 8% since listing. Once a property reaches an attractive price point, buyers are ready to purchase, as shown by a 120% increase in pending listings compared to a year ago.
The market for vacant land in Jackson Hole is more intricate than the residential market. Sky-high construction costs and limited access to materials and labor have led many to choose completed homes over building their dream homes. Over the past 2 1⁄2 years, the number of land sales has ebbed and flowed, and those building challenges have subsided to some degree. As a result, land sales have shown more resilience compared to other segments, with four more transactions this year than last. The average sale price has decreased by over 25%, while the median sale price increased by nearly 45%.
It is important to note that because the land market is relatively small, percentage changes can appear more dramatic and may not accurately reflect true trends. Similar to other market segments, there is no clear evidence to suggest that land prices have significantly increased or decreased. Land sales through mid-year have been fairly evenly distributed throughout the valley, with the Town of Jackson recording the most sales. Unlike other segments, the land market does not suffer from a lack of inventory and appears more balanced. At mid-year, there were 54 parcels for sale, a 21% decrease from last year. There are three parcels pending sale, one less than last year. Looking ahead, the market for vacant land in Jackson Hole is expected to maintain its resilience, especially if building challenges continue to ease and inventory levels remain balanced.
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Luxury property sales in Jackson Hole have shown remarkable resilience despite the market slowdown that began in 2022. This report defines luxury properties as those selling for over $5 million. The luxury real estate market experienced about five fewer sales compared to the same period last year. In 2024, several iconic properties were sold, including the Grand View River Ranch, listed at $58 million, and a 37-acre property along the Snake River with a nearly 8,000 sq. ft. home, listed at $40 million. These and a few other sales over $20 million contributed to a 16% increase in the median sale price and a 17% increase in the average sale price.
The inventory for ultra-luxury properties is more balanced compared to other segments of Jackson Hole’s market. At mid-year, 74 properties were listed for over $5 million, a 6% increase from last year. Demand for unique and luxurious properties in prime locations remains strong, as evidenced by a 125% increase in pending sales at mid-year. However, it is important to note that luxury properties are not immune to aspirational pricing, which often leads to price corrections. The properties sold this year eventually sold at an average of 88% of their original listing price. Additionally, the average time to sell a luxury property is the highest among all segments, averaging 207 days. Overall, despite some market fluctuations, the enduring demand for Jackson Hole’s luxury properties underscores the area’s appeal and resilience, ensuring it remains a sought-after destination for high-end real estate investments.
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