As summer fades into fall, we reflect on the Jackson Hole real estate market. The summer months were active, with many potential buyers closely examining available properties, monitoring interest rates, and waiting for the right moment to act on their dream properties. Sellers, meanwhile, remained patient, trusting that the right buyer would recognize the value of their property. This cautious approach on both sides resulted in a continuation of the trend seen over the past two years—stagnant transaction levels and minimal movement in sale prices.
The number of sales dipped slightly overall, down 3% from the previous year, while inventory in most market segments remained tight, even decreasing by 2%. However, as the season shifted to fall, some sellers began adjusting their asking prices and the Fed lowered interest rates. This led some buyers to act, leading to a 36% year-over-year increase in listings under contract as of the end of September. That said, different market segments have shown varied results.
As we approach the year’s end, we don’t expect any significant shifts in Jackson Hole’s real estate market. While prices are softening in some segments, others remain strong. Last quarter, we predicted that lower interest rates would spur buyer activity, increasing demand and competition and maintaining higher price levels. Now on the cusp of possible rate changes, we will watch closely to see what the remainder of the year brings. With a presidential election on the horizon, uncertainty may influence the market in the short term. But historically, post-election clarity often restores confidence, prompting more decisive moves from buyers and sellers.
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Single-family home sales have continued to fall behind last year’s levels, with transactions down about 7%, marking a steady decline since the market’s peak in 2021. Over the summer, many potential buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, carefully monitoring the market for more favorable conditions, such as lower interest rates or improved inventory. Sellers, on the other hand, remained patient, expecting that the value of their properties would eventually attract the right offers.
However, as sales stagnated, many sellers adjusted prices, resulting in homes selling on average 9.5% below the original asking price and taking 6% longer to close, with the average selling time rising to 148 days. Both average and median sale prices dropped—down 11% and 9%, respectively—not exclusively due to falling prices but a shift toward lower-priced sales compared to 2023’s higher-end transactions. In this environment, sellers aiming to achieve successful transactions must align their pricing strategies with current market conditions as buyers continue to wait for the right balance of value and fairness before making a move.
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The condo and townhome segment of the market has been more volatile since the post-2021 market adjustment, with many buyers waiting for better prices, better interest rates, and more suitable inventory. Through the third quarter, condo and townhome transactions rose by a modest 2% compared to last year. Still, it’s notable that sales in the third quarter alone matched the total from the entire first half of the year, indicating that activity in this segment is picking up. Additionally, the number of units under contract at the end of September surged by 340% year-over-year. Another sign of growing market appeal is the 17% reduction in the average time to sell, now down to 136 days.
Average and median sale prices decreased by 20% and 13%, respectively. However, these declines largely reflect an increase in lower-priced sales this year, including workforce-restricted housing and entry-level condos, particularly after the completion of the West Kelly Condominium Addition, compared to a higher proportion of pricier sales in 2023. However, it is notable that this is the first segment of the market showing actual price depreciation since the 2021 peak, with entry-level condos experiencing an average annual price drop of about 4%. That said, price depreciation is not uniform across the condo and townhome market, as different developments and locations exhibit unique competitive dynamics. Perhaps a small correction in pricing is just what it will take to get some momentum back into Jackson’s real estate market.
Mark Twain’s adage, “Buy land, they’re not making it anymore,” resonates powerfully in Jackson, where land is scarce and highly sought after. This scarcity is a defining characteristic of the Jackson Hole real estate market, with land sales consistently representing the smallest portion of total transactions. Currently, land sales account for just 11% of the market share, reflecting the limited availability and high demand for developable property in the region.
Transaction levels dropped about 11%, with four fewer sales than last year. Most sales occurred within the city limits of Jackson, while Teton Village has seen no land sales so far this year. The number of available parcels fell nearly 15% year-over-year, and three parcels were under contract at the end of the quarter. The average sale price declined by 9% to around $3 million. Given the small size of the land market, percentage changes can appear more dramatic than they truly are. As with other segments, there’s no strong evidence of significant price movement either way.
For buyers, purchasing land in Jackson is a long-term investment, as the limited availability suggests its value is likely to grow. Meanwhile, sellers must balance patience with the understanding that while their property may be a rare commodity, the market’s small size can result in long transaction timelines, averaging about 265 days over the past five years.
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Luxury property sales in Jackson Hole have remained remarkably resilient despite the broader market slowdown that began in 2022. For the purposes of this report, luxury properties are defined as those selling above $5 million. Although there were about four fewer sales in this segment compared to the same period last year, 2024 saw the sale of several iconic properties. These included the Grand View River Ranch, listed at $58 million, and a 37-acre estate along the Snake River with an 8,000-square-foot home, listed at $40 million. These transactions and other sales exceeding $20 million drove an 8% increase in the median sale price and a 7% rise in the average sale price.
The luxury segment is the most saturated in the Jackson Hole market, offering buyers a wide range of options. Inventory in this segment grew by 6% year-over-year, and with the current pace of sales, there are nearly 18 months’ worth of inventory available. For sellers, this creates a more competitive environment. Properties that are priced too aggressively may linger on the market, as buyers in the luxury space have numerous options and tend to be selective. Sellers who are motivated to close deals must carefully consider market conditions and price their properties competitively to stand out. At the end of the quarter, the number of luxury properties under contract was half what it was a year ago, and properties are now taking nearly 10% longer to sell, with the average time on the market exceeding 200 days. The balance of power may be shifting slightly toward buyers, providing great opportunities. Sellers must recognize these dynamics and be prepared to adapt their strategies, focusing on pricing and presentation to secure interest in a more competitive luxury market.
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